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Dan Wieman

Commercial Real Estate Finance

Investment Strategy

As a seasoned investor, my investment strategy is focused on value. When I found myself with leftover student loan money back in college, I did extensive research and put it into mutual funds. Twenty years later I have developed a career in commercial real estate finance and maintained a strong interest in investing. I'm passionate about investing and interested in sharing that passion with others. I believe that financial security is attainable through doing your own due diligence and making smart, strategic decisions.

Value-based investing is not a complicated process -- the first step is to realize that value and price are not the same thing. Even the most stable companies can see share prices vary by 25% or more in a single year without their long-term prospects changing significantly. The next step is to determine the value or at least the value range of a company. Lastly, wait for the market to offer a discount that will allow for market-beating returns.

Sometimes, the market doesn't offer compelling prices. In these instances, it is best to be patient and identify more great companies. To be sure, There are several ways that the market can misprice a company. The most obvious is a bear market when all companies go on sale. The market can also fail to appreciate the long-term potential of a company or discount a company's ability to attain consistent growth. Specific industry- or company-specific events may also bring a company below its long-term value. For example, Netflix's stock plunged 77 percent in a matter of months when they announced plans to spin off part of the company as Kwikster. Investors who got in on that plunge are reaping incredible rewards today. 

Many companies were significantly discounted during the financial crisis. It wasn't difficult to find great companies trading at single-digit multiples to their earnings in March 2009. Investors were bailing on the entire market at a time when it was most advantageous to pile in. These events are rare, but having cash available during such a crisis produces incredible long-term returns.

Industry-specific or company-specific events often push prices below their long-term value. The market tends to be short-sighted, selling off strong companies for missing earnings by pennies per share or for projecting that the next quarter may not be as expected. Like Warren Buffet, I view these sell offs as an opportunity. 

Finally, the market often fails to recognize long-term prospects. Think of a company like Amazon. Historically, the market punished the company for missing earnings estimates. Analysts also complained of Amazon's limited profitability -- all while continuing to invest in a platform that was slowly changing the global retail environment. Sometimes companies grow for decades even when analysts project five years of growth followed by decline. Again, the market tends to focus on the short-term and often fails to price long-term value. Gains from this strategy may be slow at first, but produce significant long-term, market-beating gains.

I encourage you to track my fund so you can monitor my investing decisions and how they play out over time. Or better yet, invest alongside me to keep your portfolio in sync with my best ideas today!


Funds
(DWVMF) Capital Value Fund
MODEL INCEPTION (12/22/2000) AVG. ANNUAL RETURN S&P TOTAL RETURN Actions
16+ YRS 6.34% 6.13% View Fund Stats Track Fund
RETURN PERIOD (As Of: 09/30/2017) AVG. ANNUAL RETURN S&P TOTAL RETURN ACHIEVEMENTS
10 YRS 4.73% 7.24% Fund has a 10 year track record.  
5 YRS 9.01% 16.37% Fund has a 5 year track record.  
3 YRS 0.96% 11.16% Fund has a 3 year track record.  
1 YR 17.61% 15.43% Fund has a 1 year track record.  
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Achievements
Articles

    Analysis and Thoughts on Skechers

    I published my analysis and valuation of Skechers on my blog. Skechers is currently the largest holding in my fund. Skechers reports returns on equity in excess of 20% and analysts are projecting a Read More...

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